Australia’s incumbent Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has won a second term in a close general election Saturday, local broadcasters projected, in an upset for the conservative coalition that was undermined at the ballot box by its association with President Donald Trump.
The Labor Party pulled ahead of the conservative Liberal-National coalition, led by Peter Dutton, with the Australian Electoral Commission’s early projections suggesting at least 70 of the 150 House seats for Labor, according to the Australian broadcaster ABC.
“Not the night we wanted,” Dutton said at his party headquarters, adding that he had congratulated Albanese on his win.
Independent candidates and minor parties are projected to take about 13 seats in parliament, which means Albanese may have to form a coalition if the final count shows that his party ultimately falls short of a parliamentary majority.
Concerns among Australians over the soaring cost of living and the lack of affordable housing dominated the election at a time when interest rates remain high. Geopolitical relations with China, Australia’s largest trading partner, were also front of mind for voters.
But voters in this election were more concerned by Trump’s shake-up of the global order with a new trade regime that slapped a 10% tariff on all Australian exports to the U.S.
A survey published Wednesday by Australian think tank the Lowy Institute found that over 60% of Australians did not have any level of trust in the U.S. to act responsibly.
Albanese, 62, rose to the top job in 2022, ending nine years of conservative rule. Spotlighting his working-class credentials, his party in this election promised tax cuts, help for young homebuyers, and a pledge of $5.5 billion more for health care.
Until recently, the Australian leader faced the prospect of becoming the country’s first single-term prime minister in almost a century, bogged down by high inflation, a slowing economy, and a housing crisis put into sharp relief by Albanese’s ill-timed purchase of a multimillion-dollar cliff-top home.
After Trump’s inauguration in January, Dutton, 54, who was leading the polls against his rival Albanese, saw a turnaround in popularity after many of his party’s campaign promises, including on immigration, were seen as widely emulating Trump and his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
In the lead-up to the election, Liberal Party insiders told Reuters that the anti-Trump sentiment was spurring risk-averse voters to move away from Dutton at the ballot box.
Trump had been “a wrecking ball” for Australia’s conservative coalition, said Andrew Carswell, the former press secretary to Liberal Party Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who lost office in the previous election, according to Reuters.
Albanese, meanwhile, refrained from mentioning Trump on the campaign trail, instead telling voters on Monday, “The last thing you need is a volatile government.”
He has avoided direct criticism of the president in favor of a security alliance with the U.S., though he was notably absent from Trump’s inauguration and has yet to visit Washington.
A YouGov poll released on Thursday predicted a Labor majority, saying the party would likely win up to 85 seats in the 150-seat lower house, with the opposition facing a net loss of 11 seats, which would be its worst performance since 1946.
Albanese’s win comes after Canada’s election earlier this week saw Prime Minister Mark Carney stage a major political comeback, fueled by a backlash against Trump’s comments on making Canada the 51st U.S. state.
Australia is one of a few countries where voting is compulsory for all citizens ages 18 years and older. Around 4.8 million of 18 million eligible voters began casting their votes as early as Thursday, with most postal votes expected to be counted after election day.